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2009 Racing Economy Forecast

Posted by Troy Harrison at 09:54:47 PM

Well, since economic forecasts are all the rage, I thought it would be appropriate to throw my own hat in the ring.  Since my main interest is the racing world, my forecast will deal with the specific effects of the 2009 economy on the racing world, both nationally and within our own home region.  So, without further ado, let's dive right in.

NASCAR:  Although sponsorships are off at the lower end of the pack this year, NASCAR has seen its on-track product change little.  At the Cup level, this is the result of the COT.  Although many (including myself) have criticized various aspects of the COT in the past, one thing that cannot be denied is that its existence makes it easier for small and emerging teams to work their way into the NASCAR mix.  While some large teams maintain large car inventories, others (such as the Nemechek and Baldwin teams) are proving that you can run a credible Cup effort with 4 cars in the shop.  That's a big boost from the past, and a primary reason that car counts in the first four races are actually UP slightly over a year ago.  The numbers work.

At the Nationwide and Truck levels, the car counts appear to be changed little; however, crowd counts have been off significantly at a couple of venues.  While crowds have looked good at Cup races this year, reports are that Cup venues are seeing significant race-day sales of discounted tickets.  That's not a bad thing per se, but it does mean that there are fewer weekend travelers, which means fewer Saturday ticket buyers.

Look for this trend to continue throughout the season as consumers keep a close watch on their wallets.  A fly-away weekend to see a Cup race can easily run $1000 for two people by the time airfare, rental car, tickets, and hotel are figured in.  That's a big chunk of change in any economy, and the indicators are that fewer people are choosing to spend it.  Even mighty Bristol has seats available for the race coming in two weeks.  Overall forecast - NASCAR's business will be down somewhat, but not disastrously so.

IRL/ALMS/others:  I'm going to lump several series into one here; those series that have relied on much more expensive, higher-tech, and primarily factory-backed cars are going to have a rough summer.  Rahal Letterman has dropped out of the IRL and has cut back their ALMS program, while other teams have dropped the ALMS altogether.  Look for the IRL to limp through the season with minimal car counts (18-20 at most races) and even more minimally-skilled drivers (Milka Duno occupies a top ride).  The ALMS could be in worse shape, putting similar car counts on the track but taking 4 classes to do it.  Tough economies always hurt the weakest players the most, and this year will be no exception.

Local Racing:  So far, all indicators are that short-track racing will be relatively healthy this year.  Early season events at Volusia, East Bay, Texas Motor Speedway, and Cowtown have played to good crowds and full pits.  I'll predict that the overall KC area racing scene will remain healthy, but there will be some shifts.

We'll see how strong Lakeside's position really is this year.  Marc Olson has sliced the purse somewhere in the neighborhood of $1000 per night, and is accompanying this with a 25% cost increase for pit passes.  Lakeside has become something of an island in the area, since its support divisions are, for all intents and purposes, Lakeside-only classes.  With Valley moving its stock car night off Friday night and Osborn killing its weekly program, Lakeside pretty much has Friday to itself in the area.  Will racers accept the transfer of cash from themselves to Lakeside's bank account?  We'll see.

Meanwhile, Dennis Shrout may be wishing he had his schedule to do all over again.  The move to Saturday night looked good last winter, when CMS was planning specials only.  Now, Valley's stock car night is part of a very crowded night that, within 100 miles of downtown Kansas City, sees CMS, I-35, Valley, Thunder Hill, Heartland Park, Adrian, and Nevada competing for the same cars and fans.  Only I-35, with its IMCA sanctioning, looks really good for this year.

In fact, one thing we will see this year is a shift of racers away from the "open" A-Modifieds toward B-Mods and IMCA Modifieds.  The cost of A-Mods has finally caused some racers to cry "uncle," and expanding B-Mod counts in the area will prove this out.  Some tracks are expecting 30 or more of the B's per night.

Another Lakeside move left a very attractive September date open, with the cancelling of the Jayhawk Modified weekend.  I will be very shocked if this date goes unfilled; someone will step up and promote a big Mod show on this date.

One group left out in the cold by all the moves - surprisingly - is the group that ran nonwing Sprint cars at Saturday night at I-70.  Perhaps the only real positive move Brad McDonald made during his tenure, I'm amazed that one of the many Saturday tracks hasn't snapped this crowd pleaser up.  This is really the only large group of racers I-70 had left, unfortunately.

It appears to me that area promoters have a real opportunity to build their fan bases this year, if they do things right.  The $10-12 charged by area race tracks still represents great entertainment value, and in a strapped economy, weekly racing can be sold as such.  A 3-4 hour program that is the same price as a movie and cheaper than nearly any other sporting event should make racing attractive - IF the promoters can (a) sell the events and (b) put on a good show once they get there. 

If there is any change that could benefit the area racing scene, it would be Dennis Shrout calling a late "audible" and flip-flopping his nights.  Competing against Lakeside on Friday night looks a lot more palatable with Marc's preseason moves.

Call me the eternal optimist if you will - but I think short track racing in this area has the opportunity to have one hell of a year, IF the promoters don't kill the goose first.

Reader Comments

Comments are owned by the posters. Racinboys.com are not responsible for their contents.

Mar 11, 2009 07:44:09 AM by LP75

Hey Troy, have you been hearing anything about the two asphalt tracks down my way?

Mar 12, 2009 10:06:49 PM by Racewriter

No, I'm not hearing anything, unfortunately. The I-44 rules seem to be a more tightly kept secret than the size of Monica Lewinsky's thong. I don't know how Brennan expects to get a field of cars when it's March 11 and nobody knows what cars are going to be legal. I would guess that if you were legal for a Bolivar clas, you'd be legal for something at I-44, but who knows? By the way - I'm totally in favor of those tracks being pavement again. I just hope they do it right. There used to be some great racing down there.

 

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